Record details

• ISBN: 9780375424045
• ISBN: 9780307275172
• Physical Description: xi, 252 pages : illustrations, charts ; 25 cm
• Publisher: New York : Pantheon Books, [2008]
• Copyright: ©2008

Content descriptions

Bibliography, etc. Note:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 223-238) and index.

Formatted Contents Note:

Peering through the eyepiece of randomness: the hidden role of chance-- when human beings can be outperformed by a rat -- The laws of truths and half-truths: the basic principles of probability and how they are abused-- why a good story is often less likely to be true than a flimsy explanation -- Finding your way through a space of possibilities: a framework for thinking about random situations-- from a gambler in plague-ridden Italy to Let's Make a Deal -- Tracking the pathways to success: how to count the number of ways in which events can happen, and why it matters-- the mathematical meaning of expectation -- The dueling laws of large and small numbers: the extent to which probabilities are reflected in the results we observe-- Zeno's paradox, the concept of limits, and beating the casino at roulette -- False positives and positive fallacies: how to adjust expectations in light of past events or new knowledge-- mistakes in conditional probability from medical screening to the O. J. Simpson trial and the prosecutor's fallacy -- Measurement and the law of errors: the meaning and lack of meaning in measurements-- the bell curve and wine ratings, political polls, grades, and the position of planets -- The order in chaos: how large numbers can wash out the disorder of randomness-- or why 200,000,000 drivers form a creature of habit -- Illusions of patterns and patterns of illusion: why we are often fooled by the regularities in chance events-- can a million consecutive zeroes or the success of Wall Street gurus be random? -- The drunkard's walk: why chance is a more fundamental conception than causality-- Bruce Willis, Bill Gates, and the normal accident theory of life.

Search for related items by subject

Subject:

Chance.
Probabilities.
Random variables.